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2017 General Election Briefing No 1: 20 April 2017

20th April 2017

The SNP continues to dominate Scottish politics. At the 2015 Westminster General Election the party secured a remarkable 49.7% of the vote and won 56 out of the 59 Scottish seats, leaving the Conservative, Labour and Scottish Liberal Democrats with just one seat each.

Current opinion polls confirm that dominant position. The most recent Westminster opinion poll (Panelbase/Sunday Times March 2017) had the SNP on 47% (-3 from GE 2015), the Conservatives, 28% (+13%), Labour continuing its downward trajectory on 14% (-10 %) with the Liberal Democrats barely visible on 4% (-4%).

But was the 2015 election a high tide for the SNP? At the 2016 Holyrood election the SNP share of the vote dropped to 46.5%. And during that election it became evident that the Scottish Conservatives were making a significant revival particularly, although not only, in rural Scotland.