This Programme is a key test for the Government, featuring the central Referendum Bill and the Government’s highly controversial Alcohol Bill.

 

The First Minister’s statement on the Government’s priorities was almost entirely geared towards building the argument for independence. On each point covered, he made an argument for the need for more powers to go further, saying there was a “glass ceiling” threatening Scotland’s ability to flourish.

 

However, as things stand currently, the Referendum Bill will not garner enough support to pass. The First Minister continues to try and tempt the Liberal Democrats with a promise of a multi-option referendum, but Tavish Scott’s comments that the referendum is about “putting the SNP first” does not imply much likelihood of success.

 

Last year, similarly, the Scottish Government announced the Council Tax Abolition Bill, but having failed to reach agreement with the LibDems, dropped it before it was introduced. As the most central ambition of the SNP – and even without Parliamentary support – it is unlikely that the Bill will be dropped.

 

The other flagship legislation on which the First Minister has spent a significant amount of time is the Alcohol Bill. Its central proposal, of minimum pricing still has no clear cross-party support.

 

The other main challenge for the government will be the Budget Bill, as they face a reduced pot. Their ability to finance opposition demands for initiatives in exchange for their support for legislation, will be much restricted.

 

The Children’s Hearing and the Crofting Bill are also likely to run into trouble. Crofting reform has failed at every hurdle in the past, and earlier in the week it was revealed that the Children’s Hearings reform is already facing delay.

 

There are 13 Bills in the programme. Some brief detail of each is below, if you would like further information on any of these please contact Emma on emma.beeby@pagodapr.com or call 0131 556 0770.

Even with the support of the Scottish Green Party, the SNP are unlikely to gain the support of any of the three unionist parties, all of whom have repeated their view that the proposed referendum is a distraction from the need to address the current economic recession.

 

Public polls undermine the SNP’s case further. There is a reported downward trend in support for independence, particularly following the release of Al-Megrahi. The recent, August (Daily Mail) YouGov poll found that support for independence had collapsed to 28%, with 57% of Scots against independence.

 

The main feature of the Bill will be the controversial proposal to introduce minimum pricing for certain beverages. The SNP have campaigned strongly on this issue, frequently citing the support of the BMA and other health organisations, stating the proposal is the equivalent of the Labour/Lib Dem’s smoking ban.

 

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have indicated their opposition to minimum pricing; though it is known that there is some sympathy towards the proposal among some of the LibDem group. However, the proposal’s fate will depend on the view which the Labour Group in the Parliament comes to.

 

One of the SNP’s election promises in 2007. It will include the right to safe and effective carer, to appropriate information and to waiting time guarantees.

 

The Bill seeks to streamline the current cumbersome structure and will see the establishment of a new national body to undertake the functions of the present Children's Hearings System. When the draft bill was launched earlier this year it provoked opposition from local authorities, and earlier this week it was reported that it is likely to face delays.

 

The Bill’s purpose is to enable the purchase of the necessary land on which to construct the new Forth crossing. The new bill, however, will not address the way in which the Bridge will be financed, a subject still under discussion between Holyrood and Westminster.

 

In past years the Budget Bill has been the basis for intense parliamentary horse trading; indeed in the last session the SNP’s proposals fell, requiring hasty talks and offers across all the parties. This year’s debate is expected to be even keener as the consequences of the recession starting to impinge on what has been an upward spending spiral since the Parliament was established in 1999. Then expenditure controlled by Holyrood was £15bn; it is now £33bn.

 

Legislation with the aim of allowing Scotland's legal profession to grow and compete, by removing restrictions on the legal business model.

Housing Bill Expected: early 2010

This Bill will remove the Right to Buy for all new build social housing, and modernise regulation for tenancy.

Subject to a forthcoming consultation, to make sure that people who become bankrupt and who are in debt are not made homeless unnecessarily.

This Bill aims to improve access to debt relief, and requiring all lenders to demonstrate to a court that they have taken reasonable steps to avoid repossessions.

Reform of legislation on management of the environment, including deer management, game law reform, tackling snaring and protection of badgers.

Historic Environment Amendment Bill Expected: Bill timetable as yet unconfirmed

Aims to improve the management of the historic environment by addressing the gaps and weaknesses of the current legislative framework identified during a recent stakeholder engagement process.

The Scottish Government agreed to reform crofting, following the work of the Shucksmith Inquiry, "recognising the unique contribution that small scale land management practices can make in terms of public benefits to the environment". Historically, Crofting Reform has been fraught and struggled to bring the crofting community with it, and this is likely to be similarly difficult.