Pagoda View

We're Backing The Bear

11 Nov 2008

Punditry has reached new levels with the launch of a new website that predicts the future. HubDub UK takes bets, in virtual money, on the outcome of live news events.

At the moment, the site is predicting that there is only a 29% chance of a referendum on independence before the next Scottish Parliament election, compared with a 38% chance of Austin Healey winning Strictly Come Dancing - and a 43% chance of Barack Obama saying ‘yes we can’ in his inauguration speech.

Well my money’s with Obama then. But then it is only virtual money – ‘Hub Dub dollars’. Although, as the arrest of a Dutch teenager for stealing virtual furniture from a virtual hotel showed, you can’t be too careful with your virtual assets these days.

HubDub even tells us that there is only a 17% chance of a third cyclist colliding with a bear in Left Hand Canyon, Colorado by the end of year. The prospect of more good weather is apparently the key factor in ensuring that at least some people are backing a hat trick for the bear. But the site overall is projecting a bear defeat.

Working in PR and public affairs, much of our work is about anticipating trends and outcomes. So are we all to be made redundant by news forecasting sites? Can we rise to the occasion?

‘Yes we can’. On-line punditry can’t replace proper research and analysis.

‘Go bear, go’....I’m counting on you to prove my point!

Ian Coldwell